Brazil–China agricultural trade in soy and beef relies on production from Brazilian landscapes that are predominantly rainfed and increasingly exposed to shifting rainfall patterns, rising temperatures, and more frequent extreme heat, particularly in the Amazon and Cerrado.

A growing body of evidence shows that land-use change and native vegetation loss can intensify these climatic stresses, with implications for crop yields, pasture productivity, and the long-term reliability of agricultural supply chains. The climatic resilience of Brazilian production landscapes is therefore increasingly relevant to the stability of soy and beef exports to China.

In this context, the study first examines climate trends in the Amazon and Cerrado and their statistical relationship with native vegetation loss. It then assesses how these trends overlap spatially with mapped soy and pasture areas within municipalities exporting these commodities to China, identifying important regions for Brazil–China agricultural trade where production is increasingly exposed to climaterelated risks.

The study also evaluates Brazil’s policy and governance framework for deforestation control, land restoration, and supply chain traceability, and discusses how complementary Brazil–China cooperation — through data sharing, sustainable procurement, and financial mechanisms — can help strengthen supply chain resilience and support more sustainable long-term trade.

Highlights

  • The scale of Brazil–China soy and beef trade, reliant on predominantly rainfed production systems in Brazil, creates a shared dependence on the climatic stability of Brazilian production landscapes.
  • Across the Amazon and Cerrado, native vegetation loss is associated with shifting rainfall patterns, increasing extreme heat, and shorter rainy seasons, potentially undermining Brazilian soy and beef production and
    exports to China.
  • Between 1993 and 2023, rainy season duration declined by up to 75 days in some parts of the Amazon and 45 days in parts of the Cerrado, reducing the agricultural window for rainfed systems.
  • Extreme heat exposure is widespread: 82% of mapped soybean areas and 62.9% of mapped pasture areas within municipalities exporting to China show increasing frequency of days above 35°C.
  • Approximately 1.4 million hectares of mapped soy and pasture areas within municipalities exporting to China face overlapping climate stressors, concentrated in the Cerrado and southern Amazon transition zone.
  • Climate trends associated with vegetation loss can create risks for production, finance, insurance, and supply chain stability. Stronger land-use governance in Brazil, combined with Brazil–China cooperation on data sharing, sustainable procurement, and finance, can help
    reduce climate-related supply chain risks and support more resilient bilateral trade.